The Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has effectively kept closed since its war with the United States and Israel began, is losing some of its strategic importance as oil producers rely more heavily on pipelines and emergency reserves, according to geopolitical expert Thomas O’Donnell.
O’Donnell, a Global Fellow at the Wilson Center, said Iran’s weakened proxy network has left Tehran with fewer tools to protect its position. In his assessment, rockets, drones and the ability to threaten shipping through Hormuz now form the country’s remaining security options, but their influence is no longer what it once was.
Alternative routes reduce the pressure
Before the conflict began, between 1.4 crore and 1.5 crore barrels of oil moved through the strait each day. Iran’s effective closure has disrupted energy markets, but O’Donnell said global supplies can continue without the full volume that previously crossed the waterway.
Saudi Arabia’s East-West crude oil pipeline transports 50 lakh barrels of oil each day, in addition to meeting domestic requirements. The United Arab Emirates also moves between 15 lakh and 18 lakh barrels daily through its pipeline network.
Further projects could reduce Hormuz’s role in the future. O’Donnell pointed to a parallel UAE pipeline and an Iraqi plan for a pipeline reaching Syria as examples of efforts to create routes that avoid the strait.
Emergency reserves add a buffer
The International Energy Agency’s 32 member countries have approved the release of nearly 40 crore barrels of oil and refined petroleum products during the crisis. The United States has separately pledged 17.2 crore barrels from its strategic petroleum reserve.
Those figures do not include supplies from North America, Central and South America, or Caribbean countries, which together account for about 32% to 40% of global oil supplies, according to the report.
O’Donnell said the disruption is not comparable with the impact a Hormuz closure would have had 20 years ago. Oil prices moving above $100 per barrel before falling to $80 the next day were described as a form of geopolitical volatility rather than evidence that the waterway alone determines supply conditions.
Iran’s control is also under pressure
The assessment is based not only on changing energy infrastructure but also on Iran’s reduced ability to monitor the strait. The report says continuing US bombing has destroyed every Iranian radar, leaving tankers to move at night when they are harder for Iran to detect.
As alternative export routes expand and Iran’s surveillance capacity remains weakened, O’Donnell expects Tehran’s control over Hormuz to decline over time. The strait’s importance as an energy transit point would therefore fall alongside Iran’s ability to use it as a source of pressure.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent predicted earlier this month that, within the next 2 years, Hormuz could become little more than a stretch of water. The report estimates that 50%-70% of exports currently associated with the strait could eventually move through underground pipelines instead.
