The India Meteorological Department has forecast very heavy rainfall in some areas of Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal from 19 to 21 October. Rain may continue in these regions through 25 October, while strong winds and thunderstorms could add to the weather risk.

The forecast places most of the northern plains under a different pattern. Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, Himachal Pradesh, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh are expected to remain dry from 19 to 25 October. Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh may receive light rain in some areas from 22 to 25 October, while Uttarakhand could see similar conditions from 23 to 25 October.

Low-pressure system over the Arabian Sea

An IMD bulletin issued at morning 8:16 said a low-pressure area over the southwest Arabian Sea could intensify into a deep depression within the next 24 hours. The system is expected to initially move east-northeastwards before gradually turning towards the northwest during the following two to 3 days and moving towards the Somalia coast.

The weather system is also linked to rainfall forecasts across other parts of southern India. Kerala, Mahe and southern interior Karnataka may receive heavy rain in some places through 25 October. Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Yanam and Rayalaseema may see heavy rain from 19 to 21 October, while Lakshadweep is expected to experience similar conditions from 21 to 23 October.

Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal may experience thunderstorms with winds of 40 to 50 km per hour from 19 to 24 October. Gusts could reach 60 km per hour. Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Yanam and Rayalaseema may face comparable thunderstorm and wind conditions on 19 and 20 October.

Potential effects and precautions

The department warned that intense rain and strong winds could lead to waterlogging, flooding in low-lying areas and landslides in some locations. Road and rail movement may be affected. Temporary houses, standing crops and horticultural activities could also suffer damage.

People in affected areas have been advised to move to safe places and avoid sheltering under trees because of the risk of lightning. Farmers have been advised to keep drainage channels clear, protect harvested crops and stop applying fertilisers and pesticides during rainfall.

Recent weather observations

The bulletin reported 12 cm of rain in Guna, Madhya Pradesh, between morning 8:30 on Sunday and morning 5:30 on Monday. Rajkot in Gujarat recorded 39.9 degrees Celsius on 18 October, making it the hottest place in the country that day.

The forecast therefore points to a concentrated period of severe rain in parts of southern India, especially during the initial three-day window. At the same time, the main northern plains are expected to remain dry, with limited light-rain chances in Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh and Uttarakhand later in the forecast period.

Conclusion

Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal face the strongest rainfall threat from 19 to 21 October, with further rain possible through 25 October. Northern plains are expected to stay dry, while the Arabian Sea system may intensify and move towards the Somalia coast.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q. Which areas are expected to receive very heavy rain?

Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal may receive very heavy rain from 19 to 21 October.

Q. How long could rain continue in Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal?

Some areas may continue to receive heavy rain from 22 to 25 October after the initial three-day period.

Q. What is the forecast for northern India?

Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, Himachal Pradesh, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh are expected to remain dry from 19 to 25 October.

Q. Where is light rain possible in the northern region?

Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh may receive light rain from 22 to 25 October. Uttarakhand may see similar conditions from 23 to 25 October.

Q. What wind speeds are forecast in southern areas?

Winds of 40 to 50 km per hour are expected in parts of Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal, with gusts reaching 60 km per hour.

Q. What hazards could the weather create?

Waterlogging, flooding in low-lying areas, landslides and disruption to road and rail movement are possible in some locations.

Q. What should farmers do during the rain?

Farmers have been advised to clear drainage channels, secure harvested crops and stop applying fertilisers and pesticides during rainfall.

Q. What happened in Guna and Rajkot?

Guna recorded 12 cm of rain between morning 8:30 on Sunday and morning 5:30 on Monday. Rajkot recorded 39.9 degrees Celsius on 18 October.