The market opened near 22,600 and moved to around 22,650 at the start before profit-taking brought it down to about 22,350, according to Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Neo.
Speaking on market volatility, Chouhan linked the early strength to appreciation in the Indian currency. He said the broader market structure and current news flow made 22,300 an important support level for the day.
Key support levels
Chouhan also identified 22,150 as another major support area. He said a break below that level could lead to a quick sell-off.
The levels provide the main technical markers highlighted in his assessment. The market's movement from the opening range towards 22,350 showed the effect of selling after the early gains, he said.
FII selling and currency pressure
Chouhan said Foreign Institutional Investors, or FIIs, had been consistently selling in the market and could continue doing so for a longer period.
He pointed to the currency as an important factor behind that pressure. Measures taken by the Reserve Bank of India had contributed to some appreciation in the currency, but he warned that further depreciation could intensify FII selling.
The assessment links currency movement with overseas investor sentiment. A stronger currency supported the market's initial move, while renewed weakness could add to the selling pressure described by Chouhan.
Crude oil remains a concern
Chouhan also highlighted crude oil as a crucial market factor. He said crude was consistently trading above 100, a level he described as negative for emerging markets.
According to his assessment, elevated crude prices could contribute to inflationary pressure. That concern comes alongside the risks from currency depreciation and sustained FII outflows.
Together, these factors form the central risk framework in Chouhan's market view: technical support at 22,300 and 22,150, continued overseas selling, currency movement and crude prices above 100.
Conclusion
Chouhan's assessment places 22,300 and 22,150 at the centre of the market's near-term support structure, while continued FII selling, currency weakness and crude above 100 remain pressure points.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q. Where did the market open?
The market opened somewhere close to 22,600 and was around 22,650 at the beginning.
Q. Where was the market trading after profit-taking?
It was trading at about 22,350 after profit-taking.
Q. What level did Chouhan identify as major support?
He identified 22,300 as a major support level for the day.
Q. What is the lower support level he mentioned?
He said 22,150 could also act as major support.
Q. What could happen if 22,150 breaks?
Chouhan said a break below that level could lead to a quick sell-off.
Q. Why are FIIs continuing to sell, according to Chouhan?
He linked the selling pressure to currency conditions and said further depreciation could add to it.
Q. What crude oil level did Chouhan highlight?
He said crude was consistently trading above 100, which he described as negative for emerging markets.
Q. What pressure could higher crude prices create?
Chouhan said the situation could contribute to inflationary pressure.
