Alternative for Germany, or AfD, has won more than 44% of the vote in regional elections in Saxony-Anhalt, opening the possibility that a far-right party could enter state government in Germany for the first time since World War II.
The result gives AfD a major political breakthrough in the eastern state, but it does not provide a clear route to power. The party is projected to secure 39 seats in the 83-member state parliament, leaving it 3 seats short of the 42 required for a majority.
AfD’s projected strength
AfD campaign leader Ulrich Siegmund called the outcome historic and framed it as a strong message to Germany’s federal government in Berlin. The result also represents a setback for established parties, particularly the conservative Christian Democratic Union, or CDU.
The CDU has governed Saxony-Anhalt for 24 years. Its vote share fell to 17.2%, down from 37.1% in 2021. The result is described as the party’s weakest performance in the state since reunification.
AfD’s electoral strength therefore comes with a governing dilemma. Although its projected total makes it the largest force in the state parliament, the party still needs support beyond its own seats to form a majority administration.
Coalition talks face a firewall
Germany’s mainstream political parties have ruled out forming a coalition or cooperating with AfD. This political refusal, commonly described as a “firewall”, leaves the party with limited options despite its strong vote share.
AfD’s Saxony-Anhalt branch has also been officially classified as a right-wing extremist group by Germany’s domestic intelligence agency. That classification adds to the obstacles facing any attempt to bring the party into a conventional governing arrangement.
If no coalition can be formed, Saxony-Anhalt could face either an AfD-led minority government or another election. The immediate political outcome will therefore depend not only on the election result but also on whether any governing arrangement can be reached without mainstream-party cooperation.
Policies behind the campaign
Siegmund, who is 35, made the return of undocumented migrants and the removal of incentives for migrants receiving benefits from the country’s social system central campaign priorities.
AfD also wants schools to promote traditional values. Other proposals include banning rainbow pride flags and making the display of the national flag compulsory.
To address population decline, the party supports reducing reliance on migrant workers, encouraging Germans living abroad to return and introducing a baby bonus for local families.
Economic concerns
Critics and a German economic institute have warned that removing migrants could seriously damage the state’s economy. Health services are a particular concern because they rely heavily on foreign workers.
The debate now extends beyond the election result. AfD’s success has strengthened its claim to political influence, while the party’s stated migration and social policies have raised questions about the effect on public services and the labour force.
Conclusion
AfD’s result in Saxony-Anhalt is a historic state-level breakthrough, but its projected 39 seats do not amount to a majority. With mainstream parties rejecting cooperation, the next government could depend on a minority arrangement or another election.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q. How many votes did AfD win in Saxony-Anhalt?
AfD won more than 44% of the vote in the regional election.
Q. How many seats is AfD projected to receive?
The party is projected to win 39 of the 83 seats in the state parliament.
Q. How many seats are needed for a majority?
A majority requires 42 seats, leaving AfD 3 seats short on the projection.
Q. Why can’t AfD easily form a coalition?
Germany’s mainstream political parties have rejected any coalition or cooperation with AfD.
Q. What is the “firewall” in German politics?
The term refers to the strategy of mainstream parties refusing cooperation with AfD.
Q. What could happen if no coalition is formed?
Saxony-Anhalt could have an AfD minority government or face another election.
Q. What happened to the CDU in the election?
The CDU received 17.2%, compared with 37.1% in 2021.
Q. What migration policies did Siegmund promote?
He prioritised sending undocumented migrants back and ending incentives for migrants benefiting from the social system.
Q. Why are AfD’s policies facing economic criticism?
Critics and a German economic institute say removing migrants could harm the economy, particularly health services that depend heavily on foreign workers.
